Table of Contents
Government shutdowns have become a recurring headline in recent years — often lasting longer and causing greater uncertainty. From a single day in the 1980s to a record 35-day shutdown in 2018–2019, it’s natural to wonder: Could a government shutdown affect your retirement stability?
Let’s take a closer look at the facts — and what you can do to protect your financial future.
The Good News: Your Retirement Is More Stable Than You Think
Historically, government shutdowns have had minimal long-term impact on retirement savings or benefits. Here’s why:
- Social Security, Medicare, and federal pensions continue uninterrupted — these are mandatory programs that aren’t affected by shutdowns.²
- The S&P 500 has risen 55% of the time during shutdowns.³
- Markets were higher 86% of the time one year after shutdowns ended.⁴
- Private-sector employment typically remains stable.
To help retirees and those nearing retirement better understand how a shutdown may impact them, we’ve created a short document reviewing the history of shutdowns and their actual impact. Click HERE to read “Government Shutdowns: Preserving Your Retirement.”
While past shutdowns have had minimal impact on retirees, future outcomes remain uncertain. Market volatility during these events could exceed your comfort level, especially if you’re in the retirement red zone – within 5-10 years before or after retirement.
Why You Should Still Pay Attention
Even though past shutdowns have shown little impact, future outcomes aren’t guaranteed. Market volatility can spike during these periods, and if you’re within the retirement red zone — the 5 to 10 years before or after retirement — those fluctuations may feel especially stressful.
That’s why proactive planning matters now more than ever.
What You Can Do Now
Here are three steps you can take to protect your retirement from potential government or market uncertainty:
- Review Your Risk Exposure
Make sure your investment portfolio aligns with your personal comfort level and financial goals. We call this a Stress-Test — it helps identify how your plan might perform during turbulent times. - Build a Buffer Against Market Losses
Consider strategies to create a cushion between you and market volatility. Our approach, called The Retirement Shift, helps minimize downside risk while maintaining long-term growth potential. - Plan for Multiple Scenarios
A strong retirement strategy prepares you for both the expected and the unexpected. From inflation to shutdowns, our comprehensive planning ensures you’re ready for whatever comes next.
Let’s Talk
If you’re wondering how a government shutdown — or any other market event — could affect your retirement strategy, we’re here to help.
Our mission is to ensure our clients are positioned to thrive through any market condition — with confidence, clarity, and peace of mind.
📞 Schedule a conversation today to discuss your personalized retirement strategy.
Sources:
- 1 Vanguard. Dec. 20, 2024. “Staying the course during a government shutdown.” https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/staying-the-course-during-a-government-shutdown.html. Accessed Sept. 22, 2025.
- 2 Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “Government Shutdowns Q&A: Everything You Should Know.” Sept. 16, 2025. https://www.crfb.org/papers/government-shutdowns-qa-everything-you-should-know Accessed Sept. 21, 2025.
- 3,4 Dan Burrows. Kiplinger. Sept. 22, 2025. “What Does a Government Shutdown Mean for Stocks?” https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/what-does-a-government-shutdown-mean-for-stocks. Accessed Sept. 22, 2025.
- Content prepared by Advisors Excel
- Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Any references to protection, safety or lifetime income, generally refer to fixed insurance products, never securities or investments. Insurance guarantees are backed by the financial strength and claims-paying abilities of the issuing carrier. Our firm is not affiliated with the U.S. government or any governmental agency.
- 9/25-4847854